Cameroon at a Crossroads: Navigating Succession Risk and Regional Opportunity

Cameroon holds a strategically important position in Central Africa, both geographically and economically. Traditionally anchored by exports in hydrocarbons, agriculture and timber, the country has long attracted interest from foreign investors seeking access to one of the region’s more diversified economies. While its resource wealth remains a core economic driver, there is growing recognition of its latent potential in sectors like agribusiness, energy infrastructure and logistics.

In recent years, Cameroon has maintained moderate macroeconomic stability despite rising political and security challenges. With one of the larger and more urbanized populations in the region, a coastline on the Gulf of Guinea and direct access to landlocked neighbors, Cameroon holds strategic importance for investors with a regional footprint. Public investment in infrastructure—especially roads, ports and power—is ongoing, albeit uneven. The economy also benefits from a relatively stable currency, the CFA franc, and regional support via CEMAC monetary cooperation.

However, foreign investment into Cameroon remains cautious and concentrated in extractives, telecommunications and select infrastructure projects. Multinationals are active in Cameroon’s oil and gas sector, while interest in renewables and agritech is rising slowly. Investors continue to seek clarity and confidence in the face of long-standing governance issues and emerging geopolitical uncertainties.

A central factor shaping Cameroon’s investment climate is its political leadership. President Paul Biya, now 92 years old, is the world’s oldest serving head of state, having ruled since 1982. His advanced age and declining public visibility have led to increasing speculation around succession and institutional continuity. The 2025 presidential election, in which Biya is expected to extend his term, has heightened attention on the country’s political future. The absence of a clear succession plan raises material political risk, particularly in the event of a sudden transition in the post-Biya era.

Cameroon continues to grapple with the Anglophone crisis in its northwest and southwest regions. What began as a constitutional and linguistic grievance evolved into a violent conflict, with separatist groups active in rural areas and frequent clashes with government forces. Over 700,000 people have been displaced and parts of the country remain inaccessible to commercial operations. In the Far North, sporadic attacks by Boko Haram and its affiliates further underscore regional security risks.

Cameroon’s business environment is characterized by complex bureaucracy, inconsistent legal enforcement and significant operational challenges. Foreign investors—especially in real estate and infrastructure—face high transaction costs, lengthy delays in property transfers (often 2 - 6 months) and risks related to land title disputes. While there have been discussions around reforms to improve public-private partnerships and streamline business registration, progress remains limited. The country continues to face governance challenges that impact rule of law and regulatory quality, requiring cautious navigation by investors.

Cameroon’s infrastructure has seen gradual improvements, but significant gaps remain. The Port of Douala continues to face challenges related to customs inefficiencies and security risks, while underdeveloped road networks, unreliable power and limited digital infrastructure constrain broader operational efficiency. Climate-related disruptions such as floods and droughts threaten agricultural stability, and a predominantly young population—over 60% under age 25—faces high unemployment. Though public debt remains moderate at approximately 43% of GDP, limited fiscal buffers and a heavy reliance on commodity exports expose the economy to external shocks, particularly fluctuations in global oil prices.

Cameroon remains a strategically important market in Central Africa—resource-rich, demographically dynamic and geographically positioned to serve as a regional logistics hub. However, it faces substantial risks tied to political succession, regional security, institutional weakness and a burdensome regulatory environment.

Despite these challenges, Cameroon still ranks above several of its neighbors in terms of overall stability. Chad, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic (CAR) all face higher levels of conflict, institutional weakness or economic volatility.

In light of Cameroon’s potential for political transition, both Gabon and Equatorial Guinea present safer investment alternatives. Gabon has seen relatively peaceful political transitions, stronger institutional capacity and a more investor-friendly business climate. Equatorial Guinea, while smaller and more opaque, benefits from strong oil-backed revenues and fewer internal security threats. Both countries offer simpler regulatory environments and greater short-term predictability.

Compared to its peers, Gabon offers a more stable and transparent environment for near-term investment, particularly for sectors like finance, logistics and sustainable agriculture. Equatorial Guinea, though less diversified, is also positioned to absorb redirected interest should Cameroon’s leadership transition result in instability.

In the Central African context, Cameroon ranks as a mid-tier opportunity: more stable than its conflict-prone neighbors, but trailing behind Gabon and Equatorial Guinea in terms of investment climate reliability. As the political landscape evolves, especially with looming leadership succession, investors will need to monitor developments closely and adjust exposure accordingly.

If your interests involve Cameroon or the broader Central African region, Stylos Advisory is available to support your strategy, partner selection and risk navigation across this complex yet opportunity-rich landscape.